No one could have predicted that 2008 & 2009 would see the US banking system nearly collapse, the Big 3 automakers beg for money from congress and the loss of a half-million jobs in November of 2008 alone.
However, 2008 also saw the adoption of E-books and podcasts, Twitter addicts and new Search Engine browsers and rather than try and predict what will be the 'next big thing', here are three things we predict will flop in 2009.
Flop :: Internet Explorer 8
Everyone's talking about it. Few really care. Google Chrome and FireFox will continue to take huge bites out of IE8, which will probably be released on December 31, 2009 so Microsoft can barely keep their promise.
Flop :: RSS as we know it
In 2009, the average web user will continue to refuse to even sniff curiously at traditional RSS feeds. Eventually they'll try and change the name to something like NNO, until everyone realizes that's '666' on their touch-tone dial.
Flop :: Analytics
That's right, analytics (AKA web stats). Don't get me wrong, we love analytics. But they're gonna flop big-time in 2009 when everyone looks at everyone else and says "Holy crap. There's no standards!" If a pageview on Google Analytics isn't a pageview in Omniture, how the hell can anyone compare anything? Look for 2010 to be the Year of the Standards, and for someone to make millions of dollars talking about "Analytics 2.0". At which point, they will be beaten severely with "lead pipe 2.0".
Learn more about JDM's upcoming "2009 Marketing Trends" report and register to receive it a full month before it's publicly available.
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Monday, January 5, 2009
2009 Marketing Flops
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NPR Topics: Technology
Those look like pretty good predictions -- and funny, too. Thanks. They make me smile, but that could be only a case of schadenfreude.
ReplyDeleteMicrosoft? An easy target; even now when they're doing lay-offs for the first time in history. But, still, these are the guys who brought you Vista and IE7; IE8 has not much to live up to. RSS? About time somebody admitted the Truth -- that nobody cares. The user POV is "I care what I say but I don't much care what you say."
But Analytics? Is this not Heresy? Are not analytics what we live and die by? Are they not a Revealed Truth? Not so much. In the final analysis, the metrics that count are revenue and (maybe) leads if you're in marketing.
You're right. By the time 2010 rolls around, a marketing person declaring, "Our analytics are so good." could elicit the same snickers and rolls of the eyes as saying, "Our awareness is so high."
Love your verve and especially the RSS dis and analytics prediction -- I'm in total agreement. Is there a prize for first-on with your predictions, Justin?
ReplyDelete